How to Plan Fuzzy Projects
ADVISORY ARTICLE
By Jeff Oltmann
Oregon, USA
Recently, I worked with a client to choose the right planning approach for a new project. We weighed the merits of predictive methods, then explored how adaptive frameworks like Scrum could add flexibility. But ultimately, we chose a lesser-known approach that blends structure with adaptability in a way that’s surprisingly intuitive. It’s called rolling wave planning, and if your teams lead complex projects in dynamic environments, it’s a powerful technique to have in your toolkit.
Projects Need Plans, Even When the Future Is Fuzzy
Every project needs a plan. Without one, teams risk thrashing – burning time and energy without making real progress. But in turbulent environments, the future beyond the near term may be too uncertain to plan in detail.
I’m not talking about fuzziness due to poor planning. I mean projects where the fuzziness is intrinsic to the project itself or the environment it’s operating in. Maybe the environment is rapidly changing, or the work involves significant discovery. Perhaps the customer doesn’t yet know what they want. The future is inherently unplannable until you get further into the project.
You might be tempted to skip planning altogether, but that’s a fast track to disaster. On the other hand, creating detailed upfront plans when the future is fuzzy will waste effort or create a false sense of confidence. Any long-range plan will be subject to constant revision.
So how do you resolve this paradox: the need for a plan, and the impossibility of planning everything at the start?
A Smarter Way to Juggle Uncertainty and Clarity
A solution to this planning paradox was first proposed, to my knowledge, by F. L. Harrison in his 1981 book Advanced Project Management. Harrison described a layered approach to planning that we now call rolling wave planning: matching the level of planning detail to the clarity available at each phase of a project…
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How to cite this article: Oltmann, J. (2025). Rolling Wave Planning: How to Plan Fuzzy Projects, PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue XI, November. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/pmwj158-Nov2025-Oltmann-Rolling-Wave-Planning-for-Fuzzy-Projects.pdf
About the Author
Jeff Oltmann
Oregon, USA
Jeff Oltmann helps organizations accelerate results through strategy deployment and project portfolio management. He consults, teaches, and leads forums for senior PMO leaders. He is principal at Synergy Professional Services (spspro.com) in Portland, Oregon and is on the faculty of the Division of Management at Oregon Health and Science University. He was previously on executive staff at IBM and is the founder of the Portfolio and Project Leaders Forum, a gathering of senior managers who lead project-based organizations (pplforum.org).
Jeff welcomes your questions and ideas. You can contact him at jeff@spspro.com or read previous articles at www.spspro.com/article-library.
