How to become a better Big Game Risk hunter

COMMENTARY

By Gareth Pugsley

United Kingdom

Could Design thinking mindset or Wicked Problem solving be used to benefit Risk analysis in order to pick up Gray Rhinos, Black swans and Black Elephants within Project management?

Introduction

David L. Pells (2020) Journal article in the PM World Journal speaks about his interest as to why there is not more research into the ability to account for Gray Rhinos or Black Elephants in risk within the project management world. Due to my employment teaching Project management and especially Risk, this question resonated with me. It was the catalyst for my study concept.

Why are there so many risk issues that seem to be missed but so prevalent in hindsight? This question is the driving the conceptual part of my study question.

Identifying the research case

Why do risk analysis and matrix processes appear to have no method to account for the supposed unpredictability? The Black Elephant, Gray Rhino Risk problems of project management are seemingly unable to be planned for and are a continuing one that blights organisations and projects of all scales. How do you think of the unthinkable when, in hindsight, they are so obvious? Is it due to lack of effort, lack of knowledge or just a cultural approach to the issue that the chances of it ever happening or not having a correct definition of what Risk is or a Gray Rhino. Could Hindsight Bias be an issue?

More…

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How to cite this work: Pugsley, G. (2025).  How to become a better Big Game Risk hunter, commentary, PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue XI, November.  Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/pmwj158-Nov2025-Pugsley-become-bertter-big-game-risk-hunter.pdf

About the Author

Gareth Pugsley

Durham Gate, UK

Gareth Pugsley is a fellow of the Association for Project Management (APM) and head of the APM Risk Interest network. He is an APM teacher of 6 years to apprentices and has been published previously in the PM World Journal.  He holds 2 master’s and undergrad degrees, all in project management, and looks forward to building a reputation in this field. He can be contacted at www.learningcurvegroup.co.uk