You’d Better Believe!
It’s More ADEPT[1]
ADVISORY
By Dr. Kenneth Smith, PMP
Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines
“It is better to be approximately right
than precisely wrong!”
– Warren Buffet
During the late 1950’s, the paradigm for estimating, planning & scheduling project activity durations was revolutionized with PERT/CPM. However, while CPM is still going strong, after almost 70 years in the limelight more dynamic tools & techniques are superseding PERT usage; notably with Monte Carlo software applications. Nevertheless, as an advocate and ‘hands-on’ PERT practitioner for deterministic activity duration analysis & planning throughout my career, IMO some utility can still be derived from a PERT-like approach as a subsidiary to the more sophisticated estimating approaches.
To that end, after intensive scrutiny, I morphed my long-standing ‘PERT-Plus’ Excel template [2] into “ADEPT” – as a successor for my workshop participants, PMWJ readers, and other interested At-Large project practitioners. But first, a summary of what PERT is; and why – although still extant – IMO, PERT needs upgrading.
PERT – the Program Evaluation & Review Technique –is an ingenious statistical innovation for offsetting the distorting influence of outliers in activity duration ranges; particularly for uncertain, high-risk projects, such as shown in Figures 1, 2 and 3.
FIGURE 1
HIGH RISK RIGHT-SKEWED ACTIVITY
For a NORMAL Distribution, given a three-point range to estimate an activity duration of
-
- 10 days Optimistic (best case)
- 20 days Most Likely (ML) duration
- 70 days Pessimistic (worst case)
the graphic would appear with a Mean of 33.3 and a wide range as follows:
More…
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How to cite this article: Smith, K.F. (2026). Better than PERT? You’d Better Believe! It’s More ADEPT. PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue V, May. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/pmwj164-May2026-Smith-better-than-PERT.docx
About the Author
Dr. Kenneth Smith
Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines
Initially a US Civil Service Management Intern, then a management analyst & systems specialist with the US Defense Department, Ken subsequently had a career as a senior foreign service officer — management & evaluation specialist, project manager, and in-house facilitator/trainer — with the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Ken assisted host country governments in many countries to plan, monitor and evaluate projects in various technical sectors; working ‘hands-on’ with their officers as well as other USAID personnel, contractors and NGOs. Intermittently, he was also a team leader &/or team member to conduct project, program & and country-level portfolio analyses and evaluations.
Concurrently, Ken had an active dual career as Air Force ready-reservist in Asia (Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) as well as the Washington D.C. area; was Chairman of a Congressional Services Academy Advisory Board (SAAB); and had additional duties as an Air Force Academy Liaison Officer. He retired as a ‘bird’ colonel.
After retirement from USAID, Ken was a project management consultant for ADB, the World Bank, UNDP and USAID.
He earned his DPA (Doctor of Public Administration) from the George Mason University (GMU) in Virginia, his MS from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT Systems Analysis Fellow, Center for Advanced Engineering Study), and BA & MA degrees in Government & International Relations from the University of Connecticut (UCONN). A long-time member of the Project Management Institute (PMI) and IPMA-USA, Ken is a Certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) and a member of the PMI®-Honolulu and Philippines Chapters.
Ken has two KENBOOKS: 1. Project Management PRAXIS which includes many innovative project management tools & techniques; and describes a “Toolkit” of related templates, and 2. MUSINGS on Project Management — a compilation of contemporary concerns in project planning, monitoring & evaluation, with some tools & techniques suggested for their solution. Either or both books are available from Amazon, and their related templates are available directly from him at kenfsmith@aol.com on proof of purchase.
To view other works by Ken Smith, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/dr-kenneth-smith/
[1] ADEPT: Activity Duration Estimating with Probability Triangulation
[2] Smith, K.F. (2026). In Defense of PERT-PLUS. PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue II, February
