in Large Complex Project Ecosystems
FEATURED PAPER
By Bob Prieto
Florida, USA
Large complex projects (LCP) [1] are characterized by unacceptably high project failure rates. The challenges that LCP face include inherent complexity [2], uncertainty [3], multiplicity of stakeholders compounding an already complicated project ecosystem, and a myriad of assumptions [4], migrating in often entangled ways, undermining the best project planning and increasing the fragility of the project management framework.
Prior works have looked at each of these aspects within a framework of what has been referred to as Quantum Project Management (QPM) [5] [6] [7]. QPM draws an analog between the world of large complex projects and the world of physics where Newtonian theory described the world around us well but failed at complexity and scale. We have seen this need to evolve our theoretical frameworks when considering other large complex domains and quantum behaviors such as emergence and entanglement are now core to many of today’s most important technological breakthroughs.
This paper focuses on anticipating and managing the fragility we see in LCP ecosystems specifically considering the fragility which arises from assumption migration [8]. A recent paper (Prieto 2025, November) looks closely as two relevant measures of assumption migration:
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- Assumption Governance Index (AGI) which quantifies the integrity of assumptions by measuring migration, consequence, and confidence decay.
- Assumption Diffusion Index (ADI) which models how changes propagate across entangled assumptions, revealing systemic exposure pathways.
In this paper we will extract the essence of the prior paper but with a significantly lighter touch on the underlying mathematics that was essential to adequately describe the thought process and new metrics to be considered. This is a point worth underscoring. The world of LCP, as described by Quantum Project Management, demands new metrics to facilitate managing these failure prone endeavors differently.
We will then build on these recapitulations of AGI and ADI by introducing a third, new, assumption focused metric looking at the project fragility created by a broader project ecosystem underpinned by a myriad of assumptions, ones that migrate and are entangled.
This new metric, the Emergent Fragility Index (EFI), detects nonlinear amplification in assumption clusters, surfacing latent brittleness before AGI or ADI respond. EFI is making its first appearance here and as such will be detailed more than the summarized sections on AGI and ADI. Together AGI, ADI and EFI enhance and go beyond traditional governance tools such as Earned Value Management (EVM), risk registers, and lagging KPIs, which by themselves have proven to be insufficient to detect the complex dynamics we see in LCP.
Together, AGI + ADI + EFI support implementation of Quantum Project Management (QPM), transforming assumption management from a passive administrative task into a predictive governance capability.
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How to cite this paper: Prieto, R. (2026). Operationalizing Quantum Project Management:
Anticipating and Managing Fragility in Large Complex Project Ecosystems, PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue II, February. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/pmwj161-Feb2026-Prieto-Managing-Fragility-in-Large-Complex-Project-Ecosystems.pdf
About the Author
Bob Prieto
Chairman & CEO
Strategic Program Management LLC
Jupiter, Florida, USA
Bob Prieto is Chairman & CEO of Strategic Program Management LLC focused on strengthening engineering and construction organizations and improving capital efficiency in large capital construction programs. Previously, Bob was a senior vice president of Fluor, focused on the development, delivery, and turnaround of large, complex projects worldwide across all of the firm’s business lines; and Chairman of Parsons Brinckerhoff, where he led growth initiatives throughout his career with the firm.
Bob’s board level experience includes Parsons Brinckerhoff (Chairman); Cardno (ASX listed; non-executive director); Mott MacDonald (Independent Member of the Shareholders Committee); and Dar al Riyadh Group (current)
Bob consults with owners of large, complex capital asset programs in the development of programmatic delivery strategies encompassing planning, engineering, procurement, construction, financing, and enterprise asset management. He has assisted engineering and construction organizations to improve their strategy and execution and has served as an executive coach to a new CEO. He is author of eleven books, over 1000 papers and National Academy of Construction Executive Insights, and an inventor on 4 issued patents.
Bob’s industry involvement includes the National Academy of Construction and Fellow of the Construction Management Association of America (CMAA). He serves on the New York University Tandon School of Engineering Department of Civil and Urban Engineering Advisory Board and New York University Abu Dhabi Engineering Academic Advisory Council and previously served as a trustee of Polytechnic University. He has served on the Millennium Challenge Corporation Advisory Board and ASCE Industry Leaders Council. He received the ASCE Outstanding Projects and Leaders (OPAL) award in Management (2024). He was appointed as an honorary global advisor for the PM World Journal and Library.
Bob served until 2006 as one of three U.S. presidential appointees to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Business Advisory Council (ABAC). He chaired the World Economic Forum’s Engineering & Construction Governors and co-chaired the infrastructure task force in New York after 9/11. He can be contacted at rpstrategic@comcast.net.
To see more works by Bob Prieto, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/bob-prieto/
[1] A Large Complex Project (LCP) refers to projects characterized by many interdependent components, multiple stakeholder groups, long durations, high uncertainty, and significant technical, organizational, or regulatory complexity; LCPs typically exhibit nonlinear behaviors, emergent risks, and governance challenges that differ from routine projects.
[2] Managing Complexity in Large Complex Projects; Prieto, R., Hajiya, A.; PM World Journal; Vol. XIII, Issue XI – December 2024; https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/pmwj147-Dec2024-Prieto-Hajiya-Managing-Complexity-in-Large-Complex-Projects.pdf, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386870526_Managing_Complexity_in_Large_Complex_Projects#fullTextFileContent
[3] Prieto, R. (2025). Measuring Uncertainty in Large Complex Projects, PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue XI, November; https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/pmwj158-Nov2025-Prieto-Managing-Uncertainty-in-Large-Complex-Projects-3.pdf; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/397300009_Managing_Uncertainty_in_Large_Complex_Projects_1#fullTextFileContent
[4] Prieto, R. (2025). Metrics for Assumption Management in Large Complex Projects, PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue XII, December
[5] Quantum Project Management (QPM) is a conceptual framework that borrows metaphors and analytical tools from complex systems and quantum thinking to describe entanglement, measurement sensitivity, and emergent behavior in projects; QPM emphasizes non decomposable risk, interaction effects, and the need for metrics that capture systemic dynamics rather than only additive risk.
[6] Prieto, R. (2024). Quantum Project Management, PM World Journal, Vol. XII, Issue I, January 2024. https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/pmwj137-Jan2024-Prieto-Quantum-Project-Management-.pdf
[7] Quantum Project Management A monograph on a new theory for management of large complex projects (2024); ISBN 978-1-304-08165-0
[8] Assumption migration denotes the change over time in an assumption’s value, scope, or applicability relative to its baseline (for example, a shift in expected material lead time); migration can be gradual or abrupt and is measured as a normalized distance from the original baseline.
