Snow Flake of risk

could change Risk in Project Management

COMMENTARY

By Gareth Pugsley            

Durham Gate, UK

Concept/Abstract

The conceptual development of the Shape Based Risk Model for us in quantum computing offers the potential for near real time mapping of project risk, enabling practitioners to visualise their effect and account for them dynamically

The foundation of this research originated from a fundamental question “What makes project risk similar and what makes each risk unique?”

Rather than approaching risk solely through established project management frameworks, the author sought to consider risk in this way. This reflective process led to the conclusion that every risk is unique in its specific characteristics, context, and potential consequences. However, despite this individuality, risks also share a number of common attributes that enable them to be analysed using consistent methodologies. Consequently, risk may be viewed as simultaneously unique and universal—possessing characteristics that distinguish one risk from another while exhibiting underlying properties common to all forms of uncertainty.

The Author therefore sought an analogy capable of representing this dual nature of risk. The concept of a snowflake emerged because, while every snowflake shares a common underlying structure, each possesses a unique pattern.

Building upon this analogy, a geometric representation was designed to provide a visual framework for modelling project risk. The intention was not merely to create a graphical representation, but to develop a conceptual model capable of illustrating both the intrinsic characteristics of an individual risk and its relationship with other risks within a project management environment. The resulting shape therefore represents a single risk entity, whilst simultaneously providing a mechanism through which interactions with other risks may be examined.

By doing so, the model could respond dynamically to individual project risks, illustrating their impact, causal relationships, cascading effect and potential influence on future project events. This could revolutionise risk management in projects with an ability to see effect rather than guess and also cause as each new flake brings with it changes and how that will ripple through the project.

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How to cite this work: Pugsley, G. (2026).  Snow Flake of Risk could change Risk in Project Management, commentary, PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue VIII, August.  Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/pmwj167-Aug2026-Pugsley-Snow-Flake-of-Risk-commentary.pdf

About the Author

Gareth Pugsley

Durham Gate, UK

Gareth Pugsley is a Fellow of the APM and IIRSM, Dept head of knowledge at the APM. Teacher for over 8 years in apprenticeship. Previous author of works published in the PM World Journal. He holds 2 masters degrees and a reputation in the Risk and Projects worlds. Gareth can be contacted at mrpugsley@outlook.com