ADVISORY
By Dr. Kenneth Smith, PMP
Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines
Technical sectors have developed &/or adopted a variety of approaches to estimate their projects activity durations as prerequisites to planning overall project schedules. These range from individual analogous experiences, and ‘rules of thumb’ (derived from collective accumulated experiences) to detailed “Touch-time” analysis (i.e. the level of effort to perform an Activity and the related direct working time & intensity (i.e. 1 man for 8 hours, or 8 men for 1 hour), given assessment of the immediate situation. Nevertheless, despite the varied approaches, schedule slippages still prevail in post-project performance assessments.
In a couple of previous PMWJ articles[1] I noted a general lack of awareness of probability theory &/or mis-application of the time-honored PERT formula for estimating and scheduling activity durations[2] as contributing to poor project planning. However, another ubiquitous ‘black elephant’[3] – waiting time — is a concurrent concomitant concern with a major, if not even more powerful impact on schedule slippages.
Not unlike physical elephants, two types of black project elephants abound! They also inhabit distinctly different environments, but you don’t have to go on an East African safari, or visit Chiang Mai, Thailand to find them!
Akin to its Asian cousin above, the smaller, and more docile variety of the species – aka ‘Gentle Giants’ — is prevalent between sequential project activities; waiting patiently until the successor activity actually commences. The larger — more rambunctious mammal — inhabits on-going project activities.
How is this relevant? Well, when computing project critical paths, planners presume successor activities are ready and able to commence as soon as their immediate-predecessor activity (or activities) have been completed – like a relay runner awaiting handover of a baton — as illustrated in these three truncated examples:
Example 1: The ‘compleat’ Project Manager’s Activity-on-Arrow Network – whether or not time-scaled — with Start & Stop Milestones for Each Activity:
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How to cite this article: Smith, K. F. (2025). Slipped Schedules, Touch-Time, and Black Elephants! Advisory article, PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue II, February. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/pmwj149-Feb2025-Smith-slipped-schedules-touch-time-black-elephants.pdf
About the Author
Dr. Kenneth Smith
Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines
Initially a US Civil Service Management Intern, then a management analyst & systems specialist with the US Defense Department, Ken subsequently had a career as a senior foreign service officer — management & evaluation specialist, project manager, and in-house facilitator/trainer — with the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Ken assisted host country governments in many countries to plan, monitor and evaluate projects in various technical sectors; working ‘hands-on’ with their officers as well as other USAID personnel, contractors and NGOs. Intermittently, he was also a team leader &/or team member to conduct project, program & and country-level portfolio analyses and evaluations.
Concurrently, Ken had an active dual career as Air Force ready-reservist in Asia (Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) as well as the Washington D.C. area; was Chairman of a Congressional Services Academy Advisory Board (SAAB); and had additional duties as an Air Force Academy Liaison Officer. He retired as a ‘bird’ colonel.
After retirement from USAID, Ken was a project management consultant for ADB, the World Bank, UNDP and USAID.
He earned his DPA (Doctor of Public Administration) from the George Mason University (GMU) in Virginia, his MS from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT Systems Analysis Fellow, Center for Advanced Engineering Study), and BA & MA degrees in Government & International Relations from the University of Connecticut (UCONN). A long-time member of the Project Management Institute (PMI) and IPMA-USA, Ken is a Certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) and a member of the PMI®-Honolulu and Philippines Chapters.
Ken has two KENBOOKS: 1. Project Management PRAXIS which includes many innovative project management tools & techniques; and describes a “Toolkit” of related templates, and 2. MUSINGS on Project Management — a compilation of contemporary concerns in project planning, monitoring & evaluation, with some tools & techniques suggested for their solution. Either or both books are available from Amazon, and their related templates are available directly from him at kenfsmith@aol.com on proof of purchase.
To view other works by Ken Smith, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/dr-kenneth-smith/
[1] Smith, K. F. (2024). REDUNDANCY IS GOOD! Say What? PM World Journal, Vol. XIII, Issue IX, September. and Smith, K. F. (2024). Schedule Slippages, Merge Milestones & Probability Theory: Rationale and Remedies, PM World Journal, Vol. XIII, Issue XI, November
[2] I.e. at only the 50% probability level, which is no better than a coin toss!
[3] While neither physical nor black, in the project management vernacular a ‘black elephant’ is an idiom for adverse readily-apparent phenomena to which the project’s management is either oblivious, is tolerating, or ignoring.