ADVISORY
By Dr. Kenneth Smith, PMP
Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines
Resources ‘excess to requirements’ are anathema in efficient stable organizational management. Consequently, such ‘duplication’ is the target of ‘work simplification’ and ‘continuous improvement’ business processing experts everywhere; to assiduously find, root out, and discard.
Wanton waste, of course, is never needed. However, unlike stable organizations, Project Managers work in a constant state of surge and slump, continually confronting intermittent crises originating beyond their control from known & unknown risks — aka black elephants and black swans. Thus, reserves of carefully pre-selected & pre-positioned equipment and supplies – whether in inventory, immediately at-hand, or on-tap — plus readily-available qualified human services ‘at the ready’ — secured with a stipend, an indefinite quantity contract (IQC) waiting for a work order, or purely voluntary — are effective assets to supplement on-going activities when needed. [1]
Indeed, concurrent competitive contracting, with alternate approaches to accomplish the same objective, was one of the prime features of the US Navy’s Polaris Project strategic management that precipitated timely launching — not only of submersible missiles, but of an entire paradigm shift to the iconic critical path method during the 1960’s.[2]
Redundancy to the rescue! First propounded for public administration in a July 1969 article,[3] Martin (Marty) Landau asserted his theory that the probability of project success — in terms of timely completion — would be increased by undertaking several concurrent individually-independent activities towards the same high risk objective.
In essence, with multiple concurrent attempts, the probability of success by at least one of the activities increases exponentially; calculated by the formula:[4]
P1 = (1 – Q)n
Where: P1 = the Cumulative Probability of at least one Success;
1 is a constant;
Q = probability of failure {i.e. 1- probability of a single successful attempt}, and
n = the number of activity attempts.
For example, given two concurrent activities towards the same objective, both with typical PERT 50% Earliest Expected Time probability, the likelihood of at least one of them succeeding would be 1 – 0.502 = 0.75 or 75%; and with a concurrent third activity, probability rises rapidly to 88%!
The number of concurrent efforts depends on the sponsor’s (or customer’s) priority for the project, their perceived need for a successful timely outcome, the probability of success of the approach for each element, and the available budget. These factors should be carefully weighed during risk analysis. As a guide, bear in mind that the probability of attaining success of an objective – i.e. milestone — increases geometrically with mere arithmetic increases in concurrent activities; as can be computed from the template in Figure 1 below.
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How to cite this article: Smith, K. F. (2024). REDUNDANCY IS GOOD! Say What? PM World Journal, Vol. XIII, Issue IX, September. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/pmwj145-Sep2024-Smith-Redundancy-is-Good-Say-What.pdf
About the Author
Dr. Kenneth Smith
Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines
Initially a US Civil Service Management Intern, then a management analyst & systems specialist with the US Defense Department, Ken subsequently had a career as a senior foreign service officer — management & evaluation specialist, project manager, and in-house facilitator/trainer — with the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Ken assisted host country governments in many countries to plan, monitor and evaluate projects in various technical sectors; working ‘hands-on’ with their officers as well as other USAID personnel, contractors and NGOs. Intermittently, he was also a team leader &/or team member to conduct project, program & and country-level portfolio analyses and evaluations.
Concurrently, Ken had an active dual career as Air Force ready-reservist in Asia (Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) as well as the Washington D.C. area; was Chairman of a Congressional Services Academy Advisory Board (SAAB); and had additional duties as an Air Force Academy Liaison Officer. He retired as a ‘bird’ colonel.
After retirement from USAID, Ken was a project management consultant for ADB, the World Bank, UNDP and USAID.
He earned his DPA (Doctor of Public Administration) from the George Mason University (GMU) in Virginia, his MS from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT Systems Analysis Fellow, Center for Advanced Engineering Study), and BA & MA degrees in Government & International Relations from the University of Connecticut (UCONN). A long-time member of the Project Management Institute (PMI) and IPMA-USA, Ken is a Certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) and a member of the PMI®-Honolulu and Philippines Chapters.
Ken’s book — Project Management PRAXIS (available from Amazon) — includes many innovative project management tools & techniques; and describes a “Toolkit” of related templates available directly from him at kenfsmith@aol.com on proof of purchase of PRAXIS.
To view other works by Ken Smith, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/dr-kenneth-smith/
[1] For example, by contracting for their services via the normal government contract process well in advance of the need, Bob Hubbell — USAID’s then Director of Evaluation — introduced the IQC concept during the 1970’s to establish a pool of several specialized M&E firms that would be available to the Agency for short stints in the future. Rates were established, a budget was secured, but contracts were unfunded. Then, when M&E consultant services were required, work orders could be issued promptly under the contract to pre-selected pool members on a rotating basis; and they could be deployed almost immediately when & where needed. A standby stipend was provided to any who were not utilized during the period of the contract. This strategy effectively shortened mobilization times.
[2] In addition to the PERT/Critical Path Method, seven other Key management practices were prevalent:
‘1) Projectized Organization
‘2) Decentralized Decision-Making
‘3) No Budget — Open-ended Funding
‘4) Schedule Priority – Crashing & ‘Fast Tracking’
‘5) Redundancy: Concurrent Competitive Alternatives
‘6) Change Orders Minimized – Deferred to Later Models
‘7) Ample MIS Infrastructure & Administrative Support
[3] “Redundancy, Rationality, and the Problem of Duplication and Overlap,” Landau, Martin [1921-2004] Public Administration Review July
[4] We used the same formula in the US Air Force to plan missions, and take out targets with gravity bombs
