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On Updating Probability Estimates

 

LETTER TO THE EDITOR

9 July 2026

Ref: 1) Dhand, N. (2026). On Three Advisory Articles in June PMWJ , Letter to the Editor, PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue VII, July. https://pmworldjournal.com/article/on-three-advisory-articles-in-june-pmwj

2) Smith, K. F. (2026). Project Management Reserve Buffering. PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue VI, June. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/pmwj165-Jun2026-Smith-Project-Management-Schedule-Buffering.pdf

Dear David,

I just read Nikhil Dhand’s insightful observations, and in particular the one regarding fluctuating probabilities in downstream activity chains — especially when something slips schedule — in response to my June article on Buffering.   That was a perceptive reminder that project implementation is indeed a dynamic process, and accordingly my recommended process requires modification.

Lesson Learned!  My enhanced approach — and advice to others — will now be to recommend regularly reviewing and updating probability estimates during project execution, rather than simply using the buffering template solely during the planning phase.

Thank you Nikhil for your feedback, as well as David for broadcasting it!

Dr. Ken Smith
Manila, The Philippines