A Complexity and Systems
Thinking Perspective
FEATURED PAPER
By Prof. Dr. M. F. HARAKE
MESOS Business School (France)
GBSB Global Business School (Malta)
CEREGE Research Laboratory, University of Poitiers (France)
Abstract
This study explores the drivers of cost overruns and schedule delays in major and megaprojects by integrating perspectives from project management, behavioral decision-making, and complexity theory. Drawing on Flyvbjerg’s work on megaproject risk, the research highlights how optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation often distort early project planning, leading to unrealistic budgets and timelines. These insights are reinforced by Kahneman and Lovallo’s cognitive theory of risk taking, which explains why decision-makers tend to produce bold forecasts while underestimating uncertainty and downside risks. In addition, the study adopts a complex adaptive systems lens, to emphasize that large-scale projects function within interconnected environments where nonlinear interactions, stakeholder dynamics, and feedback loops can amplify disruptions. Williams’ modelling approach further supports the need to move beyond linear planning tools and adopt methods capable of capturing complexity and emergent outcomes. Using evidence from academic literature and informed by Park’s doctoral research on project delays and overruns, the abstract argues that project failure is rarely caused by single technical problems. Instead, it is largely rooted in systemic issues including biased forecasting, weak governance, and insufficient complexity-aware planning. The research concludes that improving performance in major projects requires a shift toward realism in early development stages, stronger institutional transparency, and decision frameworks that account for adaptive behavior and uncertainty. By combining behavioral economics and systems thinking, this study provides a structured explanation of why megaprojects frequently exceed planned cost and duration targets and proposes pathways for more resilient project delivery.
Key Words: Megaprojects; project complexity; emergent risks; uncertainty; interdependencies; systems thinking; nonlinear impacts; governance
1. Introduction
1.2 Megaprojects and the Challenge of Performance
Megaprojects have become central instruments for delivering large-scale infrastructure, digital transformation, and technological modernization across sectors such as transport, energy, aerospace, and enterprise information systems. Although definitions vary across the literature, megaprojects are commonly distinguished by their scale, strategic significance, long durations, and multi-organizational delivery structures, often involving budgets measured in billions and societal implications that extend beyond the boundaries of the sponsoring organization (Flyvbjerg, 2014). Despite their importance, megaprojects have repeatedly demonstrated patterns of performance instability, including cost overruns, schedule delays, and benefit shortfalls. These patterns have been widely documented and appear structural rather than exceptional, suggesting that conventional explanations based solely on isolated managerial deficiencies remain insufficient (Flyvbjerg, 2009; Park, 2021).
1.3 Limits of Traditional Project Management Logics
Conventional project management is rooted in planning and control principles that assume project work can be decomposed into manageable tasks and stabilized through front-end definition, work breakdown structures, predictive scheduling, and risk mitigation frameworks. Within this paradigm, uncertainty is often treated as a variable that can be reduced by improved information, detailed planning, and disciplined execution. However, megaproject environments frequently undermine these assumptions due to high levels of complexity, deep uncertainty, and multi-layered dependencies. In such contexts, forecasting accuracy is constrained not simply because data is missing, but because project conditions themselves evolve during execution. As a result, project control methods that rely on linear causality and stable baselines may be systematically misaligned with megaproject dynamics (Williams, 2002).
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How to cite this work: Harake, M.F. (2026). Managing Uncertainty and Interdependencies in Megaprojects: A Complexity and Systems Thinking Perspective, PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue II, February. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/pmwj161-Feb2026-Harake-Managing-Uncertainty-and-Interdependencies-in-Megaprojects.pdf
About the Author
Prof. Dr. M. F. HARAKE
Poitiers, France
Prof. Dr. M. F. HARAKE is a management professor based in France. He currently serves as the Assistant General Manager and Dean of Academic Affairs at MESOS Business School (France). In addition, he is the Manager of the Research Center at GBSB Global Business School (Malta). He is also affiliated as an Associate Research Fellow at the CEREGE Research Laboratory, University of Poitiers (France). Prof. Harake’s research interests include Post-Conflict Public Management, Crisis and Urgent Operations Management, Humanitarian Logistics, and Project Management in Unstable Environments. His academic and professional contributions focus on bridging strategic theory with high-impact practical execution, especially in volatile and complex contexts.
He can be contacted at mfharake@mesos-bs.com
To view other works by Prof. Harake, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/mohamad-fadl-harake/
