Navigating Uncertainty in New Product Development
SECOND EDITION
By Tina Small
Dallas Area, Texas, USA
Introduction
In research and development, engineers must often make critical decisions based on incomplete information, creating uncertainty. The challenge for the engineering project manager lies in determining whether they have sufficient data to commit to a course of action, eliminate alternatives, and proceed, or if deferring the decision could lead to greater risk. Relying on heuristics – mental shortcuts – could lead to biased and non-optimal decisions, while waiting for analysis could lead to an impasse. Acting with integrity is being consistent with a standard, especially in the domain of decision- making. This paper explores the concept of integrity at the moment of choice as a response to the pervasive uncertainty in new product development. Concepts from systems engineering guide the selection of appropriate tools.
Decision-making is critical in new product development. The inherent uncertainty along with time and resource limitations means that we can’t simultaneously live out all the possible scenarios, unless we have the ability to travel the multi-verse like Dr. Strange. Choices must be made. To have integrity at the moment of choice, we should be confident that our decision-making methodology is the best that it can possibly be.
Figure 1 – A Mobius Strip
Looking at the decision-making process, one can see two sides. One side is analytical and rational, where data-based models provide confidence that the decision will produce the expected outcomes. The belief is that empirical measurement tells us the right thing. Another way of making decisions is intuitive, which may incorporate a subtler analysis. There may just be a gut feeling that something is or isn’t right. Subjective judgment guides the right choice. This paper follows the path of a Mobius strip, examining both sides of the decision-making process, hoping to demonstrate that they are part of an inseparable path. Integrity is wholeness: We can go with our gut, or break down problems to analyze them, but we must have both to get the full picture.
As humans, we are constantly modeling causal relationships. This ability helps us survive threats, achieve our goals, and develop subject matter expertise. Subject matter expertise is cited multiple times in the PMBOK Guide. Experts can draw on models, both mental and expressed, to make decisions that reflect their beliefs about cause and effect. Expertise adds value by making more accurate predictions about outcomes. New experiences can help update models or reinforce those prior beliefs. Collaborating with diverse subject matter experts can build even better decisions if the effort is put forth to develop shared models. Unstated assumptions may show up as nuanced differences between models. In some situations, those differences may not impact the decision or predicted outcome. In other cases, those differences may mean a preference for one decision over another.
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Editor’s note: Second Editions are previously published papers that have continued relevance in today’s project management world, or which were originally published in conference proceedings or in a language other than English. Original publication acknowledged; authors retain copyright. This paper was originally presented at the 17th Project Management Symposium at the University of Texas at Dallas in May 2025. It is republished here with the author’s permission.
How to cite this paper: Small, T. (2025). Integrity at the Moment of Choice: Navigating Uncertainty in New Product Development; Originally presented at the 17th Project Management Symposium at the University of Texas at Dallas in May, republished in the PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue IX, September. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/pmwj156-Sep2025-Small-Integrity-at-the-Moment-of-Choice-2nd-ed.pdf
About the Author
Tina Small
North Texas, USA
Tina Small’s LinkedIn bio says, “Program Manager at Texas Instruments”, but it doesn’t begin to convey the curiosity she has about how it all works! Although she’s been transforming ideas into reality as a PM for semiconductor products since 2006 – and as a development engineer before that – she finally got around to pursuing a Master’s degree.
She chose an M.S. in Systems Engineering and Management from the University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) to shore up her understanding of both the engineering systems and the people systems that are critical to her projects.
She’s been PMP® certified since 2008.
Tina can be contacted at cmsresearcher@gmail.com
