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Global Warming & Climate Change

January 6, 2025 By

 

Current Concerns & Considerations

for Project Planners

 

COMMENTARY

By Dr. Kenneth Smith, PMP

Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines

Background

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a multilateral treaty adopted in 1992 to combat “dangerous human interference with the climate system”. Their Paris Agreement signed in 2016 set an overarching goal to “hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” – which translates to an upper control limit (UCL), or ceiling of 14.33°C over a 12.83°C pre-industrial base [i.e. a 58°Fahrenheit UCL over a 55°F base. [1]]. They perceived crossing that threshold would unleash far more severe climate change impacts, such as more frequent and severe droughts, heat-waves, heavy rainfall & rising seas. Later, world leaders set a 2100 deadline for that objective; but to achieve it would necessitate ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions peaking before 2025 at the latest & declining 43% by 2030.  However, without support and cooperation of governments, civil societies, industry & the private sector, the UN maintained the world cannot contain the impending climate crisis.

The UN periodically assesses global climate abatement efforts and progress towards these objectives with Conferences of the Parties (COPs) holding formal meetings around the world, attended by national government delegates, intergovernmental & nongovernmental organizations; as well as representatives of civil society.  Unfortunately, despite their short, medium, & long-term collective aims, the November 2024 COP-29 delegates declared its meetings were ‘no longer fit for purpose‘ and postponed their intermediate target for accomplishment from 2030 to 2050, after Azerbaijani hosts maintained their country’s oil and gas were ‘a gift from God’, and international financial pledges & abatement effort commitments fell far short of perceived needs.

Subsequently, in December, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) COP16 concluded without a binding agreement on tackling drought, despite worsening global aridification trends threatening billions worldwide.  Meanwhile, the European Union (EU)’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the first in which average global temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.

Consequently like Chicken Little (aka Henny Penny) — who believed the sky was falling down — the UN is now urging all and sundry to ‘double down’; frantically warning there is no more time to lose, and insisting drastic actions be initiated to avert what the Parties perceive to be an imminent apocalypse.  However, any efforts in support of UN objectives in 2025 and beyond will foreseeably be severely challenged &/or constrained by the proposed policies of the U.S. government’s incoming Trump administration.

[1] NOTE: Fahrenheit equivalents are shown for Americans — unaccustomed to Celsius ratings — to appreciate the various temperature references.

 

Reflective Review

Despite the grim UN outlook, before rushing with valiant attempts to forestall what is purported to be an otherwise inevitable crisis, I suggest program & project management practitioners adopt the stance agile advocates recommend when confronting major impediments, namely ‘Pause, scrum and take stock of what we think we know.’  Then, we might even ‘unlearn’ a few things in order to muster, organize and rally resources for renewed ‘best efforts’ to proceed.

So, for starters – after revisiting an earlier assessment[1] — here’s what I think I know now; and my continuing concerns regarding four findings contrary to UN climate change orthodoxies — KPIs, Control, Causes & Taxes — with my conclusions and recommendations, for you to contemplate & evaluate before acting on any current programs & projects, or initiating new ones.

  1. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): While the planet’s surface has been getting warmer in recent years, with the weather reportedly becoming concomitantly wilder and more destructive of human habitation at numerous places around the world; nevertheless, I contend ‘Average Global Temperature’ is a fundamentally flawed KPI for targeting and accurately assessing temperature status.

Why? Because with myriad disparate surfaces and elevations at particular places where temperatures are recorded, ambient temperatures range widely; so an aggregate measure for the climate threshold is meaningless, as by definition half of the places will exceed the targeted Mean – i.e. the arithmetic average.

For instance, a relatively recent illustrative sample[2] — graphed on the following page — had a 31 oC range from chilly 8 oC to sweltering 39 oC [i.e. 46 o Fahrenheit to 102oF] with a 21oC [70oF] Global Average of ‘Warm’; which is fatuous!

Furthermore, while also far exceeding the 13oC [55.4oF] Mode the Mean & Median breached the UN climate control KPI barrier by 7oC.  With such a range, the +/-7oC [12.6oF] standard deviation around the Mean also swamped the UN +1.5oC [2.7oF] upper control limit; so would be preposterous in fact or function for any control purposes!

More…

To read entire article, click here

How to cite this article: Smith, K. F.  (2025).  Global Warming & Climate Change: Current Concerns, & Considerations for Project Planners, commentary, PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue I, January. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pmwj148-Jan2025-Smith-global-warming-and-climate-change-2.pdf

About the Author


Dr. Kenneth Smith

Honolulu, Hawaii
& Manila, The Philippines

 

Initially a US Civil Service Management Intern, then a management analyst & systems specialist with the US Defense Department, Ken subsequently had a career as a senior foreign service officer — management & evaluation specialist, project manager, and in-house facilitator/trainer — with the US Agency for International Development (USAID).  Ken assisted host country governments in many countries to plan, monitor and evaluate projects in various technical sectors; working ‘hands-on’ with their officers as well as other USAID personnel, contractors and NGOs.  Intermittently, he was also a team leader &/or team member to conduct project, program & and country-level portfolio analyses and evaluations.

Concurrently, Ken had an active dual career as Air Force ready-reservist in Asia (Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) as well as the Washington D.C. area; was Chairman of a Congressional Services Academy Advisory Board (SAAB); and had additional duties as an Air Force Academy Liaison Officer.  He retired as a ‘bird’ colonel.

After retirement from USAID, Ken was a project management consultant for ADB, the World Bank, UNDP and USAID.

He earned his DPA (Doctor of Public Administration) from the George Mason University (GMU) in Virginia, his MS from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT Systems Analysis Fellow, Center for Advanced Engineering Study), and BA & MA degrees in Government & International Relations from the University of Connecticut (UCONN).  A long-time member of the Project Management Institute (PMI) and IPMA-USA, Ken is a Certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) and a member of the PMI®-Honolulu and Philippines Chapters.

Ken’s book — Project Management PRAXIS (available from Amazon) — includes many innovative project management tools & techniques; and describes a “Toolkit” of related templates available directly from him at kenfsmith@aol.com on proof of purchase of PRAXIS.

To view other works by Ken Smith, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/dr-kenneth-smith/

[1] “GAME THEORY & GLOBAL WARMING: An International & Internecine Economic Analysis.” Smith — A more detailed 2023 study of this situation; and one of 50 articles on contemporary project management issues in my book “MUSINGS on Project Management” (currently available on Amazon).
[2] 137 major world cities were analyzed at one time period on just one sample day: 13:10 Manila time Sept 8th 2023. While hot in Manila at 32oC [89.6oF] — with which we are accustomed — we were totally unaffected, and unperturbed by the fact that concurrently New York night, & London early morning temperatures were respectively warm at 23o C [73.4oF] & cool at 17o C [62.6oF]; nor they by us.

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