Global Energy Scenarios

COMMENTARY

By Daslav Brkic and Roberto Mori

Milan, Italy

ABSTRACT

The migration of investments in energy systems towards new “green” technologies continues. In spite of the evident slowdown and indeed in some countries policy reversals, the “Energy Transition” continues its progress, albeit at a slower pace than originally forecast or desired. Even beyond the obvious advantages of lower emissions, the critical factors of success over the last decade have been economic: the rapid cost reduction in the applications of solar and wind-based systems to produce electric power competitively with other sources; the penetration in some markets – particularly in China and in northern European countries – of electric vehicles, also with substantial economic benefits throughout their life-cycle.

Therefore, the majority of players in the energy industry see significant transformations over the next decades. Primarily, a rapid increase in the demand for electric power, globally, which will more than double by 2050, to be satisfied by the rapid further development of generation systems based on renewable energy sources as well as on natural gas, whose demand should also grow substantially, particularly in the form of LNG. The nuclear power industry is undergoing a substantial revival. These systems with generation plants closer to the consumption also tend to provide a higher level of supply security.

The demand for oil and coal should peak over the next decade and reach a plateau, and then start a slow decline, due – for oil – to the introduction of ever more efficient transportation engines and electric vehicles, and – for coal – to its replacement with natural gas and renewable energy sources. Therefore, by 2060 we expect the fossil fuels to account for only 40 % of the global primary energy supply, vs. about 80 % today. Inevitably, these profound changes will impact the CAPEX investments in the energy industry: following the trend already observed over the last decade, we will see the gradual slowdown of the investments in the traditional Oil & Gas industry, with the parallel increase in new ‘green’ ways of producing and transporting energy.

The supply difficulties caused by the current wars in the Middle East will actually accelerate the trends towards the energy transition, since renewable and nuclear sources are typically much closer to the energy consumption centers, without the need for long-distance shipments of oil & gas from or across low-security geographies.

INTRODUCTION

Modern project management developed in the post-World War II period in the military and infrastructure sectors, but it had its broadest growth and evolution in the oil & gas and petrochemical industry of the 1950s and 60s, when the world leaders in the sector – the famous “Seven Sisters” – began to develop increasingly complex, high-risk and capital-intensive projects: refineries, petrochemical plants, exploration, extraction, storage, transport, and distribution infrastructures. During those years, planning techniques such as PERT/CPM were born along with the EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contractual model, with its many facets that greatly influenced the development of contract management as a vital skill for this type of project. But before IPMA (International Project Management Association), the oldest project management association, and PMI (Project Management Institute) were founded in 1965 and 1969 respectively, the ‘seven sisters’ had already taken steps to systematize the best project management practices that contractors had to apply in managing the projects assigned to them. Project managers of a certain age will remember when those customers required compliance with these project management procedures (“basic practice”), which became an integral part of the contractual documents.

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How to cite this work: Brkic, D. and Mori, R.(2026).  Global Energy Scenarios, commentary, PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue VI, June.  Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/pmwj165-Jun2026-Brkic-Mori-Global-Energy-Scenarios.pdf

About the Authors

Daslav Brkic, PhD

Milano, Italy

Daslav Brkic is a corporate management consultant for marketing and business development, with decades of experience in the engineering industry in the Oil & Gas, environment, power, and telecommunications sectors. Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Management and the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Politecnico di Milano, the BiG Academy, and the Baker Hughes University of Florence. He has also taught at the International Business School of the Gubkin State University of Oil & Gas in Moscow. His experience includes multiple roles in business development, sales, technology development, licensing, and strategic planning in the U.S.A., the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Italy, initially with Honeywell UOP, ABB, and Sirti. From 2002 to 2016 he was at Saipem (the first years at Snamprogetti), where as Senior Vice President he directed business development, strategic planning, external communication and institutional relations, technology development, and licensing.

After graduating in Chemical Engineering from the Politecnico di Milano in 1975, he obtained in 1979 a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from a joint program between the Politecnico di Erlangen–Nuremberg, Germany, and the Politecnico di Milano. Subsequently, he attended the M.B.A. program at the University of Chicago and executive courses in industrial strategy at Stanford University and the Corporate Universities of ABB and Eni. Today he is Editorial Director of the magazines “Impiantistica Italiana” and “Industrial Plants” and a consultant for the ANIMP Study Center; an associate member of the CEEPR – Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at MIT and of the Paris Energy Club. He has been Vice President of ANIMP, Advisor and board member of Assomineraria, the World Energy Council, the Society of Petroleum Engineers, and other international and Italian industrial associations; he has also been a member of the Committees for Internationalization of the industrial Italian associations Confindustria and Assolombarda.

He has written over 150 articles and papers presented at international conferences.

Daslav Brkic can be contacted at daslav@dbbd.eu

Roberto Mori

Milano, Italy

Roberto Mori has an extensive background in Project Management of international turn-key projects of industrial plants, oil & gas and iron & steel sectors. He has covered several functions in project teams, up to the roles of Senior Project Manager, Projects Director and Portfolio Manager. His background includes also experience as Procurement Director and Operations Manager for the same type of projects portfolio. Until the end of 2020 he has been Director Special Projects in Tenova, one of the world’s leaders for iron, steel, mining and material handling technologies. (www.tenovagroup.com)

Roberto Mori has been member of the Italian National Association of Plant Engineering (ANIMP) since the early 90’s, taking major part in the activities performed by its Project Management Section, IPMA Italy, of which he has been President till February 2015. Information about ANIMP can be found at www.animp.it/IPMA

He has been Chairman of International Project Management Association (IPMA) 2013- 2014, after having served as Vice President and President for four years. He has been Prize Winner of the IPMA Project Excellence Award 2006 and obtained the IPMA Otto Zieglmeier’s Award for Excellent Project Management Performance in 2008. Today he is IPMA Honorary Fellow and member of the IPMA Ethics Committee after having served as its Chair for three years. More about IPMA at www.ipma.ch

Member of Scientific Committees for international conferences, author of published papers on project management topics, speaker at national and international congresses; he is also teacher for courses on project, risk and contract management.

Roberto Mori can be contacted at rbrtmori@gmail.com