Evidence-Based Decisions,
Measurably Better Outcomes,
and Effective Bias Management
FEATURED PAPER
By Massimo Pirozzi and Francesca Apponi
Rome, Italy
ABSTRACT
Despite decades of ongoing methodological progress, heightened professional certification, enhanced project management maturity, and increasing organizational recognition of the strategic significance of projects, project success rates have consistently remained low across various industries and regions. This paper argues that such underperformance cannot be primarily attributed to external complexity or technological volatility but rather to structural weaknesses in project decision-making quality: in fact, in many organizations, critical project decisions continue to rely heavily on personal intuition, experience, and authority and are systematically shaped by cognitive, behavioral, and organizational biases.
Building on this premise, the paper explores the transition from opinion-based to evidence-based project management and examines how artificial intelligence can enable this shift when adopted as a form of project management augmentation. Specifically, the paper demonstrates how AI can enhance the decision-making processes in crucial yet often inadequately addressed areas, including retrospective intelligence, forward-looking decision support, data-driven corrective and preventive measures, stakeholder intelligence and sentiment analysis, early risk warning, issue management, and structured bias management.
Ultimately, AI augmentation results in an essential modern project management competency, which relies not only on technology but also on governance, culture, and professional expertise, since AI-enhanced project management provides a pragmatic and accountable approach to enhancing project performance, resilience, and enduring organizational learning through the reinforcement of evidence-based, bias-conscious decision-making.
INTRODUCTION: FROM OPINION-BASED TO EVIDENCE-BASED PROJECT MANAGEMENT
In recent decades, project success rates have consistently remained low, notwithstanding ongoing enhancements in project management methodologies, a rise in the number of certified project managers and practitioners, the evolution of project management and organizational maturity, and an overall increase in organizational awareness regarding the significance of projects within the strategic framework. Recent survey (Project Management Institute, 2024) demonstrates that nearly half of projects cannot be deemed fully successful, even when evaluated through contemporary, strategy-oriented, and value-driven criteria, rather than solely relying on the conventional “iron triangle.”
This discovery is not unusual: it is more of a long-term structural pattern that has been affecting project performance for more than ten years. In fact, previous reports (Project Management Institute, 2021) have consistently shown that about 30% of projects do not meet the goals for which they were originally funded, almost half of these projects also have major schedule delays, budget overruns, or both, while scope creep, on the other hand, is still a common problem that affects about one-third of projects in all sectors and regions.
The fact that these numbers have stayed the same over so much time suggests that project underperformance is not mostly caused by an external volatility, a sector-specific complexity, or a technological disruption, but instead is due to structural problems with how projects are approached, initiated, planned, estimated, managed, and directed.
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How to cite this paper: Pirozzi, M. and Apponi, F., (2026). From Opinion-Based to AI-Augmented Project Management: Evidence-Based Decisions, Measurably Better Outcomes, and Effective Bias Management; PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue II, February. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/pmwj161-Feb2026-Pirozzi-Apponi-From-Opinion-Based-to-AI-Augmented-PM.pdf
About the Authors
Massimo Pirozzi
Rome, Italy
Massimo Pirozzi, MSc cum laude, Electronic Engineering, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Project, Program, and Portfolio Manager, Lecturer, Educator, Generative AI Leader, and Specialist. He is a Member of the Scientific Committee and an Accredited Master Teacher of the Istituto Italiano di Project Management (Italian Institute of Project Management). He is certified as a Professional Project Manager, as a Generative AI Leader, as an Information Security Management Systems Lead Auditor, and as an International Mediator. He is specialized, among other specializations, in Generative Artificial Intelligence for Project and Program Managers, in Generative Artificial Intelligence for Educators, in Responsible Generative Artificial Intelligence, in Prompt Engineering for Project Managers and for Educators, and in Agentic AI. In general, he has more than 70 Credentials in Project Management, Artificial Intelligence, Emotional Intelligence, Creative and Critical Thinking, Learning Design and Education released by primary US, British, Italian, and Singaporean Universities, US Companies, US and Italian Professional Associations.
Massimo is a Researcher, a Lecturer, and an Author about Stakeholder Management, Relationship Management, Complex Projects Management, and Generative AI, and he authored or coauthored more than 50 works in 5 different Countries. In particular, he is the Author of the Book “The Stakeholder Perspective: Relationship Management to Enhance Project Value and Success”, CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton (FL), U.S.A., October 2019, the second Edition of which—including a consistent additional part dedicated to AI—will be published soon. Due to the acknowledgement of his comments on stakeholder-related issues contained in the Exposure Draft of The Standard for Project Management—7th and 8th Editions, he has been recognized as one of the contributors and reviewers of the PMBOK® Guide—7th and Eighth Editions, and he received the Certificate of Appreciation for Excellence for his volunteer contributions to the Project Management Institute and the project management profession in 2020. He also received several International Awards.
Massimo Pirozzi has wide experience in managing large and complex projects, programs, and portfolios in national and international contexts, and in managing business relations with public and private organizations, including multinational companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, research institutes, and non-profit organizations. He worked successfully in several sectors, including Defense, Security, Health, Education, Engineering, Logistics, Cultural Heritage, Transport, Gaming, Services to Citizens, Consulting, and Web. He was also, for many years, a Top Manager in ICT Industry, and an Adjunct Professor in Organizational Psychology. He is registered as an Expert of both the European Commission and Italian Public Administrations.
Massimo Pirozzi is an Accomplished Author, a Member of the Executive Team and an International Editorial Advisor of PM World Journal and can be contacted at max.pirozzi@gmail.com. www.linkedin.com/in/massimo-pirozzi-the-stakeholder-perspective
To view other works by Massimo Pirozzi, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/massimo-pirozzi/
Francesca Apponi
Rome, Italy
Francesca Apponi, MSc Eng., PhD, is a project manager, AI engineer, data analyst, and scientist. She has a PhD in Enterprise Engineering from the University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, specializing in Artificial Intelligence and Business Intelligence applied to strategic decision-making. She currently works as a Chief Technology Officer, leading the company’s AI and advanced analytics initiatives. Her experience includes predictive analytics, sentiment and facial emotion recognition for consumer behavior analysis, and the use of semantic and network-based approaches to extract insights that inform strategic decisions. She connects artificial intelligence, data, and business strategy to create tangible value and drive innovation across digital products and services.
Francesca is an active member of the ISIPM-Young team, contributing to training and outreach activities in Project Management. She has spoken at major national events such as PMExpo, addressing strategic topics in project management and sustainability.
She has contributed to scientific and technical publications on sustainable project management, strategic collaboration, and econometrics, and her research has been published in peer-reviewed journals such as PM World Journal, Project Manager (IL), Scientometrics, and the Journal of Economic Surveys.
Francesca is a licensed Professional Engineer. She holds the IELTS Academic certification, multiple credentials in Artificial Intelligence and the ISIPM-Base and ISIPM-Av certifications. Her passion for digital transformation and artificial intelligence, combined with analytical and communication skills, enables her to translate complex analyses into actionable strategies. Francesca Apponi can be contacted at apponifrancesca@gmail.com. linkedin.com/in/francesca-apponi
To view other works by Ms. Apponi, visit her author showcase in the PM World Journal at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/francesca-apponi/
