for ASME B31.3 Pipeline Projects
FEATURED PAPER
By Naufal Abdurrahman
Jakarta, Indonesia
ABSTRACT
This paper develops a probabilistic–parametric rule of thumb model to support CAPEX Class 4 (feasibility) estimates for ASME B31.3 product pipelines (BBM, non‑internal coating) in a national Indonesian oil and gas company. Historically, estimates were based on deterministic spreadsheets and single‑point values, increasing the risk of cost overruns and schedule delays. The methodology standardizes WBS/CBS structures, builds a scalable historical database from 50 downstream pipeline projects (normalized to 100 m segments and expressed in ounces of gold at a P80 gold‑price index), and derives empirical cost and time distributions. Four functional forms (linear, power, logarithmic, exponential) are calibrated using regression and evaluated using R², MSE, and ANOVA. The power model provides the best fit and is adopted to estimate cost and duration as functions of diameter, location, and year of construction. The resulting model accelerates feasibility studies while remaining consistent with AACE Class 4 accuracy expectations.
Keywords: Parametric Model, ASME B31.3, Pipeline, Cost Estimate, Forecasting Growth using Gold Price, National Oil Company, Capex Class 4.
INTRODUCTION
Oil and gas are the most used energy sources worldwide, accounting for 36.4% of primary energy consumption and 94.5% of global energy used for transportation. Maggio and Cacciola argue that world oil production can be modeled with ”a variant of the Hubbert curve” [1] to project long-term supply trends…
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Author’s note: This paper was originally prepared during a 6-month-long Graduate-Level Competency Development/Capacity Building Program developed by PT Mitrata Citragraha and led by Dr. Paul D. Giammalvo to prepare candidates for AACE CCP or other Certifications. https://build-project-management-competency.com/our-faqs/
How to cite this paper: Abdurrahman, N. (2026). Development of an Integrated Cost and Schedule Estimation Framework for ASME B31.3 Pipeline Projects; PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue VIII, August. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/pmwj167-Aug2026-Abdurrahman-Estiimation-Framework-for-Pipeline-Projects.pdf
About the Author
Naufal Abdurrahman
Jakarta, Indonesia
Naufal Abdurrahman is an engineer with over six years of professional experience in the oil and gas sector. He currently serves as a Cost Analyst Engineer at the national oil company of Indonesia. Throughout his career, he has been involved in various downstream oil and gas projects, including fuel terminal, pipeline, storage tank and related infrastructure. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering from University of Indonesia (UI). Currently, he is participating in a distance learning mentoring program under the supervision of Dr. Paul D. Giammalvo, CDT, CCE, MScPM, MRICS, GPM-m, Senior Technical Advisor at PT Mitratata Citragraha, as part of his preparation toward obtaining the Certified Cost Professional (CCP) certification from AACE.
Naufal lives in Jakarta, Indonesia, and can be contacted at: naufalabd1990@gmail.com
[1] Maggio, G., & Cacciola, G. (2009). A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts. Energy Policy, 37(11), 4761-4770. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.053
