A 2025 longitudinal update:
Analyzing the evolution from “Iron Triangle”
to strategic value in the era of AI
FEATURED PAPER
By Giuseppe Arcidiacono, CISA, CISM, CGEIT, CRISC, CDPSE, PMP, ITIL 4 Foundation,
ISO 27001 Lead Auditor
Italy
Abstract
In February 2017, the PM World Journal published the author’s featured paper, “Comparative research about high failure rate of IT projects and opportunities to improve,” which examined the structural causes of IT project failures during the transition to Agile methodologies (Arcidiacono, 2017). Eight years later, the landscape of Information Technology has been radically reshaped by Generative AI, hybrid work models, and continuous digital transformation. Yet, statistical evidence from 2025 reveals a concerning paradox: while technological capabilities have expanded, project success rates have stagnated. This paper serves as a direct follow-up to the 2017 research, updating the comparative analysis with data from the 2020–2025 period. It argues that the root causes of failure have shifted from process execution to strategic alignment and data governance, proposing “Business Acumen” as the new critical competency for reversing the trend.
Keywords: IT project failure, Standish Group CHAOS Report, Generative AI, Business Acumen, Bimodal governance, strategic alignment.
Introduction: a longitudinal perspective (2017–2025)
When I first analyzed the high failure rates of IT projects in these pages in 2017, the industry’s discourse was dominated by the dichotomy between Waterfall and Agile methodologies. The primary conclusion of that research was that failure often stemmed from “insufficient communication” and a rigid adherence to the “Iron Triangle” of time, cost, and scope, rather than a focus on delivering business value (Arcidiacono, 2017).
Returning to this subject in 2025, it is necessary to evaluate how the “state of the art” has evolved. The context has shifted dramatically: we have moved from an era of digitizing processes to an era of AI-driven automation. However, comparing the historical datasets used in my previous work with current reports from the Standish Group, PMI, and Oxford Global Projects (Flyvbjerg, 2023) reveals a stubborn persistence in failure rates.
This update seeks to answer a fundamental question: Why, despite more advanced tools and mature frameworks, do IT projects continue to fail at largely unchanged rates?
The stagnation of success: comparative statistics
The Standish Group data: 2017 vs. 2025
In the original 2017 analysis, data from the Standish Group’s CHAOS Report indicated that approximately 19% of projects failed outright (cancellations) and over 50% were “Challenged.” Current data from the 2020–2024 cycle shows remarkably little movement in these high-level metrics, suggesting a systemic “complexity ceiling” (The Standish Group, 2024).
Table 1 below illustrates the stagnation in success rates over the last decade, highlighting that the widespread adoption of Agile has not resulted in a proportional increase in outright success.
More…
To read entire paper, click here
How to cite this paper: Arcidiacono, G. (2026). Comparative research on IT project failure rates: a 2025 longitudinal update: Analyzing the evolution from “Iron Triangle” to strategic value in the era of AI; PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue I, January. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pmwj160-Jan2026-Arcidiacono-research-on-IT-project-failure-rate-2025-update.pdf
About the Author
Giuseppe Arcidiacono
Italy
Giuseppe Arcidiacono, CISA, CISM, CGEIT, CRISC, CDPSE, PMP, ITIL 4 Foundation, ISO 27001 Lead Auditor, is an Italian Computer Engineer. Graduated with honors from the University of Calabria, he currently serves as an Executive at the Calabria Region Agency for Payments in Agriculture (ARCEA). He is the author of numerous scientific articles and has collaborated with the Il Sole 24 Ore Group since 2014. He holds three Executive Master’s degrees from the University of Calabria, Roma Tre University, and Politecnico di Milano School of Management (MIP) as well as 8 international certifications (CISA, CISM, CGEIT, CRISC, CDPSE, ITIL 4 Foundation, PMP, ISO 27001 Lead Auditor). He can be contacted at arcidiaconog@gmail.com.
