for Sanction-Quality Decisions in Indonesia’s
Downstream Oil and Gas Projects
FEATURED PAPER
By Roffi Ardinata
Indonesia
ABSTRACT
Despite the availability of internal procedures, scheduling software, and international references, EPC projects in Indonesia’s downstream oil and gas sector continue to experience significant schedule delays. This paper examines the extent to which the Company’s current front-end scheduling practices can support sanction-quality decisions rather than merely meet procedural compliance requirements.
By using a seven-step engineering economic analysis procedure, this paper compares current practices (Internal procedures and practices) with GAO-16-89G, AACE, NDIA predictive measures, NASA JCL, and performance-based EVM principles as benchmarks. Furthermore, to refine the analysis, six selected alternatives were evaluated using compensatory and non-compensatory Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) models.
By analyzing data from 15 EPC projects completed by the Company, this paper reveals a clear picture of worsening project completion problems, with an average schedule delay of 276%, nearly tripling the original duration. This problem stems in part from weak early-stage readiness, which is characterized by four key structural gaps that will be explored further in this paper.
Using the MADM technique, we identified Alternative 6 (A6), the Performance-Based EVM, as the most preferred alternative. To obtain clearer, more practical results, we conducted an additional backtest, which showed that implementing the P50-adjusted baseline would significantly reduce the average schedule delay.
Keywords: Front-end scheduling; schedule readiness; project control; sanction decision; WBS/CBS integration; downstream oil and gas
INTRODUCTION
A: Organizational context and direction of the problem
Giammalvo candidly highlights a harsh but important reality that “despite more than five decades of formal project management practice, supported by leading global professional bodies such as PMI, IPMA, AACE, and AIPM, as well as numerous regional and local organizations, project failure remains a recurring and well-documented problem.”[1] Figure 1 highlights this problem clearly. Even in a mature professional environment, the Australian project management community reports that “only 36% of projects were reported as on budget and only 32% as on time, while stakeholder satisfaction and delivery against business goals were also below 50%.”[2] Based on this pattern, we can see that the continuous deterioration of project performance is not solely due to a lack of professional tools, methods, or language, but rather to the inability to integrate these tools into a coherent decision-support system.
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Author’s note: This paper was originally prepared during a 6-month long Graduate-Level Competency Development/Capacity Building Program developed by PT Mitrata Citragraha and led by Dr. Paul D. Giammalvo to prepare candidates for AACE CCP or other Certifications. https://build-project-management-competency.com/our-faqs/. AI-assisted tools were used to support language editing and readability improvement under the author’s oversight and control. All analytical content, data interpretation, and conclusions are the author’s own.
How to cite this paper: Ardinata, R. (2026). Assessing Owner-Side Front-End Schedule Readiness for Sanction-Quality Decisions in Indonesia’s Downstream Oil and Gas Projects; PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue VI, June. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/pmwj165-Jun2026-Ardinata-front-end-schedule-readiness-for-downstream-OG-projects.pdf
About the Author
Roffi Ardinata
Indonesia
Roffi Ardinata is an engineering professional with seven years of experience in the downstream oil and gas sector, particularly in project management, scheduling, maintenance and inspection, engineering design, and safety engineering.
He holds a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from Andalas University. Throughout his career, he has been involved in engineering reviews, project planning and monitoring, cost estimation, budget support, maintenance planning, inspection, and operational facility reliability activities for fuel and LPG terminals.
He is currently attending a distance learning mentoring course under the tutelage of Dr. Paul D. Giammalvo, CDT, CCE, MScPM, MRICS, GPM-m, Senior Technical Advisor at PT Mitrata Citragraha, to attain the Certified Cost Professional (CCP) certification from AACE International. He can be contacted at ardinataroffi@gmail.com.
[1] Giammalvo, P. D. (2023). The futility of integrated master plans prepared by planner/schedulers with little or no hands-on field experience. PM World Journal, 12(9).
[2] KPMG & Australian Institute of Project Management. (2022, November). The state of project management in Australia 2022. KPMG.
