SECOND EDITION
By Joseph D’Mello
Illinois, USA
Abstract
Worldwide investment in projects consumes a large slice of global GDP, but project outcomes and success rates continue to lack luster, resulting in significant value destruction for organizations and economies. A call to action is warranted for project management to deliver demonstrable and measurable results. This paper will provide preliminary but cogent evidence that artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform project management from an “arts and crafts” discipline to one that has a guiding science capable of delivering improved project outcomes and realizing comprehensive value-enhancing solutions to organizational work challenges and economic imperatives. While estimating, monitoring, and forecasting are used merely as illustrations of how AI can enhance current project management tools (both traditional and agile), the overall thrust of the paper is on exploring how AI could elevate the perception and practice of the project management discipline, redefine the skillset of project managers, and reshape project management standards, education, and training.
- Introduction
Investment in projects consumes a large slice of the $105 trillion annual global GDP[1], with some reports suggesting that the annual investment is as high as $48 trillion – or slightly under half of annual global GDP [1]. Project outcomes and success rates, however, continue to be concerning. For example, the 2020 Standish Group Report [2] estimates that 42% of software projects using the agile approach are successful, 47% are challenged, and 11% fail. The respective numbers for the traditional approach are 13%, 59%, and 28%. Various other reports on project success rates (that include non-software projects as well) suggest similar or worse track records (see [3], for example, which claims that 99% of big projects fail!). Equally concerning is the fact that project success rates do not appear to have shown a statistically significant upward trend over the past decade [4].
These concerns warrant a call to action for reevaluating how the project management discipline is perceived, practiced, and taught. Project management has primarily curated knowledge from other disciplines instead of creating new knowledge consistent with the times and with emerging technology, work, and social trends. For example, how much of the fundamental knowledge, models, artifacts, tools, and techniques in project management textbooks, standards, and bodies of knowledge have been created in the past 20 years? A thoughtful evaluation will reveal that almost all of the project management discipline, as it exists today, comprises knowledge and techniques dating back to the previous century, and the vast majority of them are adapted from other disciplines.
By way of comparison, disciplines like marketing and finance have been briskly creating knowledge, tools, techniques, and artifacts that are abreast of evolving consumer and stakeholder needs and trends, and which utilize the technologies of the times. For example, marketing has adapted to the internet age and social media [5] and finance and investment have made similar adjustments. Consider the various financial and investment instruments created relatively recently and Wall Street’s use of AI for quite a while [6].
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Editor’s note: Second Editions are previously published papers that have continued relevance in today’s project management world, or which were originally published in conference proceedings or in a language other than English. Original publication acknowledged; authors retain copyright. This paper was originally presented at the 11th Annual University of Maryland PM Symposium in April 2024. It is republished here with the permission of the author and conference organizers.
How to cite this paper: D’Mello, J. (2025,2024). AI-Enhanced Project Estimating, Monitoring, and Forecasting; presented at the 11th Annual University of Maryland Project Management Symposium, College Park, Maryland, USA in April 2024; republished in the PM World Journal, Vol. XIV, Issue I, January 2025. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/pmwj148-Jan2025-DMello-AI-Enhanced-Project-Estimating-Monitoring-Forecasting.pdf
About the Author
Joseph D’Mello
Naperville, Illinois, USA
Joe D’Mello founded Exequity Inc., a Project Management Institute Authorized Training Partner (ATP) and a management consulting & training firm focusing exclusively on boosting clients’ execution capabilities by designing innovative and nimble approaches and techniques for attaining vision-aligned and value-generating results. He has a sustained track record of successfully leading vision- and mission-critical projects, turning around troubled projects, and implementing initiatives in (and novel approaches to) process improvement, organizational agility, data analytics, organizational learning, product and new business development, change management, etc.
He began his industry career in R&D and product development at AT&T Bell Laboratories, where he was fast-tracked to an appointment as Distinguished Member of Technical Staff and thereafter appointed to various senior management positions. His vast management and consulting/training experience in the US, Europe, Asia, and Middle East span various industry segments and wide-ranging initiatives requiring the creation of synergies and efficiencies across several functional areas such as strategy, finance, marketing, sales, R&D, IT, product/business development, quality, operations, HR, etc.
Considered a thought leader and maven on execution, he has consulted for and been invited by leading corporations and reputed universities to conduct on-site training seminars which have included practitioners, managers, and executives from organizations such as Apple, Boeing, Booz Allen Hamilton, FDA, Google, HP, IBM, Leo Burnett, Microsoft, NASA, NIH, and several others: small businesses, not-for-profits, Fortune 100/500, US and foreign government organizations, defense/intelligence, etc.
He has received awards and frequent commendations from clients and seminar participants for imparting a very refreshing blend and balance of incisive precepts, practical experience, real life and behavioral insights, managerial and leadership perspectives and judgment, and intellectual honesty and rigor – coupled with illuminating acumen on leveraging technology and data science. In May 2013, he won the University of Chicago’s coveted Annual Excellence in Teaching Award in Business and Professional Programs, and a similar award in 2009 from the University of Maryland Global Campus MBA program. He still teaches on contract at both these universities.
He holds an Executive MBA from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management (Northwestern University) with concentrations in finance, marketing, and strategy; and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees (Math with CS minor) from Ohio State University, Columbus. He is a member of the American Society for Quality (ASQ) and the Project Management Institute (PMI); has a Master’s Certification in Project Management from Stevens Institute of Technology, New Jersey; is a PMI-certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) and Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP®); as well as a Certified Scrum Master (CSM). His expertise and experience also span six sigma, data science, AI and deep learning, various programming languages, and educational technology; as well as tools and/or skills in wide-ranging disciplines: marketing, strategy, operations, R&D, software design/development, IT, finance, etc.
He lives in Naperville, IL with his wife and three children. When not working, he enjoys interesting and insightful conversations, family fun, poetry, occasional travel, keeping fit, and exploring and realizing holistic health. He has a zest for learning as well as teaching and likes to explore eLearning technologies. Mr. D’Mello can be contacted at joseph.dmello@umgc.edu
[1] As of 2023 (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/)
