Integrating Velocity into the 3D Risk Matrix
– A transformative approach
FEATURED PAPER
By Dr Dimitris N. Antoniadis
London, UK
Abstract
In this article, the author introduces a transformative approach to risk management by integrating temporal dynamics into the established three-dimensional (3D) risk matrix. Traditional two-dimensional (2D) models, which assess risks based on likelihood and impact, fail to capture the complexity and urgency inherent in modern projects.
Building on the 3D Risk Matrix, where risks are positioned within a cube defined by likelihood, impact on time, and impact on cost, the proposed approach reconceptualises risks as dynamic vectors rather than static points. This shift enables the incorporation of Risk Velocity, a critical and unexplored dimension that measures the speed at which risks materialise and escalate. The author expands on two distinct components of risk velocity, defined as Lead Time Velocity (LTV), representing the approach of a risk toward occurrence, and Impact Time Velocity (ITV), describing the rate at which consequences intensify post-occurrence.
By applying vector mathematics, the proposed approach captures both magnitude and direction, offering a richer representation of risk severity and trajectory. The framework introduces predictive capabilities through vector equations, allowing risk escalation to be modelled as a function of time. This dynamic perspective enhances prioritisation, enabling managers to distinguish between high-impact, slow-moving threats and lower-impact, fast-moving risks that demand immediate action. The author concludes by outlining future directions, including software integration for real-time visualisation and extending the model to additional risk dimensions. The vector-based approach advances risk management from a reactive process to a more proactive one and provides project teams and risk practitioners with much improved foresight and strategic control.
Keywords: Risk Velocity, Risk Management, Vectorisation of Risk, Risk Lead Time Velocity, Risk Impact Time Velocity.
- Introduction – Reassessing the Foundations of Risk Management
In an era characterised by increasing project complexity and interdependence, the demand for more improved and dynamic risk management methodologies has never been greater. Traditional approaches, while foundational, often fall short in capturing the full, multi-dimensional nature of modern risks. This paper builds upon established risk theory to propose a novel, vector-based framework that integrates the critical dimension of time. By reconceptualising risks as dynamic vectors rather than static points, we can achieve a more nuanced understanding of not only their potential impact but also the speed at which they approach and escalate.
The core practice of risk management is rooted in understanding and addressing uncertainty. The Association for Project Management (APM) Body of Knowledge (2019) provides a concise and powerful definition of risk: “The potential of an action or event to impact the achievement of objectives.”
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How to cite this paper: Antoniadis, D. N. (2026). A Vector-Based Approach to Dynamic Risk Management: Integrating Velocity into the 3D Risk Matrix – A transformative approach; PM World Journal, Vol. XV, Issue II, February. Available online at https://pmworldjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/pmwj161-Feb2026-Antoniadis-Vectorised-Dynamic-Risk-Management.pdf
About the Author
Dr. Dimitris N. Antoniadis
London, UK
Dr Dimitris N. Antoniadis PhD MSc BEng(1st) CEng FAPM FCMI MIMechE, based in UK, has 35+ years’ experience in Programme and Project Management positions, having covered project phases from concept to handover and operation / maintenance.
He is currently Director in the Programme, Project Management and PMO with DANTON PROGM, technical advisor to Novacept and has set up the BSc in Project Control that is currently delivered by the partnership between London Metropolitan College and the University of West London.
He has held Senior Management posts in major utilities, infrastructure and construction organisations delivering programmes of works ranging from £250M to £3.2Bn. As Head of Programme Management Office (PMO) he has set up and run the departments within challenging partnering environments, setting up all the processes from governance to reporting. He has also led / co-led major business transformation programmes for Client organisations in UK and abroad, integrating project management software tools with ERP systems.
He is the author of the book ‘Demystifying Project Control’; contributed chapters in books on complexity, leadership and other project management topics and has written a number of journal and conference papers. He has been a guest speaker at UK Universities as well as International conferences on various project management topics.
He was awarded the PhD, from Loughborough University, UK, on the subject of ‘Managing Complexity in Project Teams’, where he developed a framework for managing the effects of complexity on projects.
Parts of his work can be seen in www.danton-progm.co.uk
His book Demystifying Project Control can be purchased from: https://amzn.to/2Jm1Zeh
Dr. Antoniadis can be contacted at dnanton00@gmail.com
To view other works by Dr. Antoniadis, visit his author showcase in the PM World Library at https://pmworldlibrary.net/authors/dr-dimitris-n-antoniadis/
