to Compare Ocean, Wind, Solar, Geothermal and Hydro Renewable Energy Business Options in Indonesia
FEATURED PAPER
By Centhya Octavia Iriani
Jakarta, Indonesia
ABSTRACT
Indonesia has a target using renewable energy in the national energy mix of 23% in 2025 and 31% in 2050. But, by 2018, the installed capacity of renewable energy power plants 2.13% from the total potential renewable energy in Indonesia. Along with that, with the prediction, the earth will face global cooling instead of global warming in 2020 – 2050 because of the grand solar minimum. Therefore, the utilization plan of renewable energy must align with grand solar minimum phenomena.
This paper is developed to find whether the plan to use of renewable energy up to 2050 is appropriate regarding grand solar minimum effect and seek what is renewable energy solution to align with grand solar minimum.
In this paper, the author demonstrates using dominance and non-dimensional scaling multi-attribute decision making to determine the best option for renewable energy business for Indonesia covers the effect of grand solar minimum, total life cycle cost, availability capacity factor, feed-in tariff, energy supply potential, and Government’s regulation. The paper concludes that Geothermal and Hydropower covers most conditions and align with the grand solar minimum.
Key words: Grand Solar Minimum, Renewable Energy, National Energy Potential, Geothermal, Solar, Hydro Power, Wind energy, Ocean energy, Dominance, Non-dimensional Scaling Multi-attribute
INTRODUCTION
From 1645 to 1715 and 1790 to 1820, “Temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM). During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly.”[1] “Already in a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe, and North America went into a deep freeze.”[2] This research has been conducted by Valentina Zarkova, which is linked the solar activity to the average sunspot number resemblance report in the past on Maunder Minimum (1645 – 1715) and Dalton Minimum (1790-1820). It predicts the modern grand solar minimum will approaching the sun in 2020 -2055.
This cycle is driven by a magnetic field, which produces sunspots, fire, bright areas, and other disturbances. For this reason, the luminosity of the sun changes from year to year. These changes have subtle but essential influences on the Earth’s climate. Solar behavior is consistent with the decrease in solar luminosity and must be accompanied by a colder climate on Earth.
“An uptick in high-level volcanic eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma. And larger eruptions (ones that fire volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block out the sun.”[3]
“Using computer climate models, the researchers of the new study concluded that, if an eruption like Mount Tambora’s happens in 2085, the Earth will cool up to 40 percent more than the 1815 eruption, assuming current rates of climate change continue. However, they also predict that the cooling will be spread out over several years.”[4]
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How to cite this paper: Iriani, C.O. (2020). Using Multi-Attribute Decision Making to Compare Ocean, Wind, Solar, Geothermal and Hydro Renewable Energy Business Options in Indonesia; PM World Journal, Vol. IX, Issue I, January. Available online at https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/pmwj89-Jan2020-Iriani-compare-renewable-energy-options-in-indonesia.pdf
About the Author
Centhya Octavia Iriani
Jakarta, Indonesia
Centhya Octavia is an oil and gas professional has worked on many companies with multicultural environment namely Halliburton Wireline & Perforating, Rekayasa Industri and Pertamina (Persero). She is currently Research Facility & Engineering Service at Research & Technology Center, Pertamina. Centhya has 6 years experiences in engineering, procurement & construction for upstream and downstream projects. She holds a bachelor degree in Engineering Physics from Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) and she is attending a distance learning mentoring course, under tutorage of Dr Paul D. Giammalvo, CDT, CCE, MScPM, MRICS, GPM-m Senior Technical Advisor, PT Mitrata Citragraha, to attain Certified Cost Professional certification from AACE International.
She lives in Jakarta, Indonesia and can be contacted at centhyaoctavia@yahoo.com
[1] Nasa.(2006). Chilly Temperatures During The Maunder Minimum. Retrieved from https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum
[2] Morano,Marc. (2018). Solar Minimum May Bring 50 Years of Global Cooling. Retrieved from https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/02/08/solar-minimum-may-bring-50-years-of-global-cooling/
[3]Allon.Cap.(2019). Professor Valentina Zharkova’s “Expanded” Analysis Still Confirms Super Grand Solar Minimum (2020-2025). Retrieved from https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/
[4] Hess.Peter.(2017). Future Volcanic Eruptions Will Screw With Climate Change More Than Before. Retrieved from https://www.inverse.com/article/37941-volcano-eruption-climate-change
